Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.70% | 0.00% | 0.92 |
| 1 | 34.80% | 60.40% | 1.47 |
| 2 | 47.80% | 120.30% | 2.02 |
| 3 | 60.80% | 180.20% | 2.57 |
| 4 | 73.90% | 240.60% | 3.12 |
| 5 | 87.00% | 300.90% | 3.67 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 360.80% | 4.22 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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