Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-28) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	21.70%	0.00%	0.92
1	34.80%	60.40%	1.47
2	47.80%	120.30%	2.02
3	60.80%	180.20%	2.57
4	73.90%	240.60%	3.12
5	87.00%	300.90%	3.67
6	100.00%	360.80%	4.22

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.92
• % of original R0: 21.7
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.47
• % of original R0: 34.8
• % Increase from current: 60.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.02
• % of original R0: 47.8
• % Increase from current: 120.3

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.57
• % of original R0: 60.8
• % Increase from current: 180.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.12
• % of original R0: 73.9
• % Increase from current: 240.6

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.67
• % of original R0: 87
• % Increase from current: 300.9

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.22
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 360.8