Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.70% 0.00% 0.92
1 34.80% 60.40% 1.47
2 47.80% 120.30% 2.02
3 60.80% 180.20% 2.57
4 73.90% 240.60% 3.12
5 87.00% 300.90% 3.67
6 100.00% 360.80% 4.22

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.92
  • % of original R0: 21.7
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.47
  • % of original R0: 34.8
  • % Increase from current: 60.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.02
  • % of original R0: 47.8
  • % Increase from current: 120.3

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.57
  • % of original R0: 60.8
  • % Increase from current: 180.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.12
  • % of original R0: 73.9
  • % Increase from current: 240.6

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.67
  • % of original R0: 87
  • % Increase from current: 300.9

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.22
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 360.8